End of the Brady Era?

     In the wake of the punishment handed down by the NFL to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots regarding DeflateGate, many Patriots fans, and NFL fans in general are left wondering what the Patriots future will look like.

The punishment is a four-game suspension for quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots losing their 1^st round pick in 2016 and losing their 4^th round pick in 2017. In addition, the team has been fined one million dollars, the largest fine ever given to a team in NFL history.

The most significant part of the punishment is Tom Brady’s four-game suspension. Brady’s side have made it clear they plan to appeal, but right now, it stands as a four-game suspension with Tom Brady returning to action against none other than the Indianapolis Colts…. If he’s with the Patriots.

Following the suspension, I threw out the idea of the Patriots trading Tom Brady. Reactions from people varied from “Oh Lord”, “Ok Skip Bayless”, “Wtf”, “Are you high?” and more.

At this point right now, I want you to pause and clear your mind. Read the rest of this with a completely open mind, not shaking your head with your mind already made up.

Okay, now let me explain.

Let’s just start with Brady’s age. At the start of the preseason, Brady will be 38 years old. Is he playing like a 38 year-old quarterback? No, he’s playing as if he is in his prime. But let’s not forget, father time is undefeated. Sometimes it’s not a steady decline for a player. Sometimes, their production just falls off a cliff. See Peyton Manning last year. He was great a couple years ago, the league MVP. He started the season playing great. And then all of a sudden, he looked very ordinary. Now, to be fair, there was an injury that had a role. But that’s my point. In a violent sport like football, injuries are part of the game. At 38 years old, it takes longer and it’s harder to recover from those injuries.

Let’s move on to what a future without Brady would be like on the field, which the Patriots will have to experience even if they do keep him because of the suspension. They invested a 2^nd round pick in a quarterback from Eastern Illinois last year: Jimmy Garoppolo. When you take a quarterback that high and have an aging quarterback, it’s a clear indication that you plan for him to be your future. He will be the man at some point, and at least for a few games to begin this season.

That leads to the third point: the business aspect. Tom Brady has taken less money with the Patriots than he’s worth. That is well documented. What he has also done in recent years (multiple times), is adjust his contract. That means he clears cap space at the time and there will be a bigger cap hit at the back end of his contract. Well, if the Patriots trade him now, they can avoid that. Brady has a cap hit of 14 million in 2015, 15 million in 2016, and 16 million in 2017 before he becomes a free agent. If he was traded and the Patriots rode Jimmy Garoppolo, the cap hit for Garoppolo is 633,436 dollars for 2015, 791,795 dollars for 2016, and 950,154 for 2017. They would literally save 14-16 million PER YEAR with Garoppolo under center versus Brady. And like I said above, they do plan on Garoppolo being the guy of the future anyways, so why not now? With the new CBA, teams can take advantage of quarterbacks in their first contract because they have to play for cheap so you can build a great team, defense and offense, around him. For a model, just look at the Seattle Seahawks and what they have done with Russell Wilson so far.

Next, is it realistic? Of course it is. Everybody’s initial reaction is “oh my God, not Tom Brady, he’s one of the best ever.” That’s correct and I’m not refuting that. But remember, the 49ers traded away Joe Montana while he could still play and went with Steve Young. While Steve Young turned out to be a Hall of Famer, at the time Young had an extremely underwhelming stint with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and had just shown some flashes with the 49ers. Montana led his new team, the Kansas City Chiefs, to the AFC Championship game the next year, showing he still had some in the tank. But in the long run, it was the right decision.

Brett Favre was allowed to walk by the Green Bay Packers and they entrusted the franchise to a young quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who had barely played. Favre led the Viking to an NFC Championship game a few years later, but in the long run, nobody will question that decision.

Peyton Manning, getting up in age and coming off of major neck surgery, was allowed to walk by the Colts in favor of a rookie in Andrew Luck. Now granted, Luck had promise but so did Ryan Leaf in 1998 but the Colts went with that decision and it’s proven to be a success for them in the long term. In the short term, Manning still had plenty left in the tank. He broke single-season records, won MVP, and took his team to the Super Bowl. But in the long run, it was a great decision.

Lastly, Bill Belichick. He has a reputation for letting go of guys a little early rather than too late and often getting stuff back for them. Remember when Brady took over in 2001? He was a decent quarterback, but Drew Bledsoe was a proven franchise player that had just signed a contract worth over 100 million dollars. Belichick rode with Brady, the cheaper option. Remember cutting veteran safety Lawyer Milloy days before the 2003 season? Remember when Deion Branch was a Super Bowl MVP and wanted money? Belichick let him take his talents to Seattle. Remember shipping Richard Seymour to Oakland while he was still in his prime? Remember letting go of Tom Brady’s best friend Wes Welker while he was still producing 100 catches per year? Remember just last season trading away anchor Guard Logan Mankins?

Belichick has done this all the time. Doing it with Brady could land him multiple 1^st round picks and more, save him cap space and give him a chance to prove his coaching isn’t just a product of Tom Brady’s greatness.

I’m simply saying a trade isn’t as ludicrous as it sounds and it could be beneficial to both parties. Say a team like the St. Louis Rams trade for him. The Rams would be instant contenders with that defense and the Patriots would benefit in the ways explained above.

If Robert Kraft can get over his personal feelings of affection for Tom Brady (he has called him his "son") and pull the trigger on a trade, it could be beneficial in the long run. 

Belichick always preaches he wants to do what's "in the best interest of the team." 

Okay Bill, time to prove it.