2015 NFL Predictions

Opening Night- Patriots over Steelers 31-24

AFC Playoff picture:

AFC South Champion- Indianapolis Colts (1^st seed)

AFC East Champion- New England Patriots (2^nd seed)

AFC West Champion- Denver Broncos  (3^rd seed)

AFC North Champion- Pittsburgh Steelers  (4^th seed)

Wild Card #1: Baltimore Ravens

Wild Card #2: Buffalo Bills

NFC Playoff picture:

NFC West Champion- Seattle Seahawks  (1^st seed)

NFC East Champion- Dallas Cowboys (2^nd seed)

NFC North Champion- Green Bay Packers  (3^rd seed)

NFC South Champion- Atlanta Falcons (4^th seed)

Wild Card #1: Arizona Cardinals

Wild Card #2: New Orleans Saints

AFC Championship Game: Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship Game: Cowboys over Seahawks

Super Bowl: Colts over Cowboys

Season MVP: Tom Brady, Patriots

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Vikings

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Vic Beasley, Falcons

Comeback Player of the Year: Eric Berry, Chiefs

Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy, Packers

2011 Dallas Mavericks vs. 2015 Golden State Warriors

     As the Golden State Warriors finished off LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in six games to win the NBA Finals, it was the first NBA title for the team since 1975. But for some reason, to me, it felt all too familiar, like it had happened more recently. 

That’s because their story has many similarities to another team that won the championship. A team that won in 2011. The Dallas Mavericks.

Of course, no two teams are ever the same, even year to year within the same franchise. The 2011 Mavericks and 2015 Warriors have a lot of unique qualities, but there are a ton of mind-blowing similarities as well. And it starts from the top.

The 2011 Mavericks were led by head coach Rick Carlisle, a guy who was in a broadcasting chair with ESPN right before he joined the team.

Similarly, the 2015 Warriors are led by Steve Kerr, a guy who was a broadcaster with TNT prior to joining the team.

Rick Carlisle won the NBA championship (once) as a player and 2011 was his first Finals win as a head coach.
Steve Kerr won the NBA championship (five times) as a player and 2015 was his first Finals win as a head coach.

Even the situations the two men inherited were shockingly similar. Neither head coach was required to build the team from scratch.

The season prior to Carlisle joining the team, the 2007-2008 Mavericks had gone 51-31 under the leadership of Avery Johnson and made the playoffs. However, they had an early exit in the first round, which led to Johnson being fired.

Just last season, under the leadership of Mark Jackson, the Warriors went… yes, exactly the same record as the Johnson-led Mavs, 51-31, and also had a first round playoff exit.

Now let’s get to the playoffs. In 2011, the Mavs went 16-5 in the playoffs. In the four playoff series, they had one sweep (2^nd round), one 4-1 series win (Conference Finals), and two 4-2 series wins (1^st round and NBA Finals).

Fast forward to 2015. The Warriors had an identical 16-5 record through the playoffs. They also had one sweep (1^st round), one 4-1 series win (Conference Finals), and two 4-2 series wins (2^nd round and NBA Finals).

In the NBA Finals, both teams faced the self-proclaimed and widely regarded “best player on the planet” in LeBron James.

In 2011, the Mavs were down 2-1 to LeBron and the Miami Heat.

In 2015, the Warriors were down 2-1 to LeBron and the Cavs.

After the Mavs fell behind 2-1, Carlisle made a change in the starting lineup by inserting JJ Barea. The Mavs then went on to rattle off three straight wins and win the championship in six games.

After the Warriors fell behind 2-1, Kerr made a change in the starting lineup by inserting Andre Iguodala. The Warriors won three straight, capturing the championship in six games.

In 2011, the Mavs won the closeout game on the road in Miami and scored 105 points.

In 2015, the Warriors won the closeout game on the road in Cleveland and scored 105 points.

Lastly, for what it’s worth, both the 2011 Mavs and 2015 Warriors were led by a superstar that was extremely likeable by the average sports fan in Dirk Nowitzki and Steph Curry.

Despite the many similarities, there were plenty of big differences as well. The Miami Heat team in 2011 was stacked with superstars in LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Cavs in 2015 were depleted, playing without the services of Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Anderson Varejao. LeBron in 2011 had arguably his worst NBA Finals in 2011 of his six attempts. In 2015, he had arguably his best, evident by the fact he garnered more series MVP votes than Steph Curry and, well, you could just peek at his ridiculous stats.

Anyways, comparisons like this won between the 2011 Dallas Mavericks and the 2015 Golden State Warriors always make for a good sports conversation. And looking back, there really were a lot of similarities.

The most important similarity for both of those teams: They finished on top of the NBA world.

End of the Brady Era?

     In the wake of the punishment handed down by the NFL to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots regarding DeflateGate, many Patriots fans, and NFL fans in general are left wondering what the Patriots future will look like.

The punishment is a four-game suspension for quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots losing their 1^st round pick in 2016 and losing their 4^th round pick in 2017. In addition, the team has been fined one million dollars, the largest fine ever given to a team in NFL history.

The most significant part of the punishment is Tom Brady’s four-game suspension. Brady’s side have made it clear they plan to appeal, but right now, it stands as a four-game suspension with Tom Brady returning to action against none other than the Indianapolis Colts…. If he’s with the Patriots.

Following the suspension, I threw out the idea of the Patriots trading Tom Brady. Reactions from people varied from “Oh Lord”, “Ok Skip Bayless”, “Wtf”, “Are you high?” and more.

At this point right now, I want you to pause and clear your mind. Read the rest of this with a completely open mind, not shaking your head with your mind already made up.

Okay, now let me explain.

Let’s just start with Brady’s age. At the start of the preseason, Brady will be 38 years old. Is he playing like a 38 year-old quarterback? No, he’s playing as if he is in his prime. But let’s not forget, father time is undefeated. Sometimes it’s not a steady decline for a player. Sometimes, their production just falls off a cliff. See Peyton Manning last year. He was great a couple years ago, the league MVP. He started the season playing great. And then all of a sudden, he looked very ordinary. Now, to be fair, there was an injury that had a role. But that’s my point. In a violent sport like football, injuries are part of the game. At 38 years old, it takes longer and it’s harder to recover from those injuries.

Let’s move on to what a future without Brady would be like on the field, which the Patriots will have to experience even if they do keep him because of the suspension. They invested a 2^nd round pick in a quarterback from Eastern Illinois last year: Jimmy Garoppolo. When you take a quarterback that high and have an aging quarterback, it’s a clear indication that you plan for him to be your future. He will be the man at some point, and at least for a few games to begin this season.

That leads to the third point: the business aspect. Tom Brady has taken less money with the Patriots than he’s worth. That is well documented. What he has also done in recent years (multiple times), is adjust his contract. That means he clears cap space at the time and there will be a bigger cap hit at the back end of his contract. Well, if the Patriots trade him now, they can avoid that. Brady has a cap hit of 14 million in 2015, 15 million in 2016, and 16 million in 2017 before he becomes a free agent. If he was traded and the Patriots rode Jimmy Garoppolo, the cap hit for Garoppolo is 633,436 dollars for 2015, 791,795 dollars for 2016, and 950,154 for 2017. They would literally save 14-16 million PER YEAR with Garoppolo under center versus Brady. And like I said above, they do plan on Garoppolo being the guy of the future anyways, so why not now? With the new CBA, teams can take advantage of quarterbacks in their first contract because they have to play for cheap so you can build a great team, defense and offense, around him. For a model, just look at the Seattle Seahawks and what they have done with Russell Wilson so far.

Next, is it realistic? Of course it is. Everybody’s initial reaction is “oh my God, not Tom Brady, he’s one of the best ever.” That’s correct and I’m not refuting that. But remember, the 49ers traded away Joe Montana while he could still play and went with Steve Young. While Steve Young turned out to be a Hall of Famer, at the time Young had an extremely underwhelming stint with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and had just shown some flashes with the 49ers. Montana led his new team, the Kansas City Chiefs, to the AFC Championship game the next year, showing he still had some in the tank. But in the long run, it was the right decision.

Brett Favre was allowed to walk by the Green Bay Packers and they entrusted the franchise to a young quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who had barely played. Favre led the Viking to an NFC Championship game a few years later, but in the long run, nobody will question that decision.

Peyton Manning, getting up in age and coming off of major neck surgery, was allowed to walk by the Colts in favor of a rookie in Andrew Luck. Now granted, Luck had promise but so did Ryan Leaf in 1998 but the Colts went with that decision and it’s proven to be a success for them in the long term. In the short term, Manning still had plenty left in the tank. He broke single-season records, won MVP, and took his team to the Super Bowl. But in the long run, it was a great decision.

Lastly, Bill Belichick. He has a reputation for letting go of guys a little early rather than too late and often getting stuff back for them. Remember when Brady took over in 2001? He was a decent quarterback, but Drew Bledsoe was a proven franchise player that had just signed a contract worth over 100 million dollars. Belichick rode with Brady, the cheaper option. Remember cutting veteran safety Lawyer Milloy days before the 2003 season? Remember when Deion Branch was a Super Bowl MVP and wanted money? Belichick let him take his talents to Seattle. Remember shipping Richard Seymour to Oakland while he was still in his prime? Remember letting go of Tom Brady’s best friend Wes Welker while he was still producing 100 catches per year? Remember just last season trading away anchor Guard Logan Mankins?

Belichick has done this all the time. Doing it with Brady could land him multiple 1^st round picks and more, save him cap space and give him a chance to prove his coaching isn’t just a product of Tom Brady’s greatness.

I’m simply saying a trade isn’t as ludicrous as it sounds and it could be beneficial to both parties. Say a team like the St. Louis Rams trade for him. The Rams would be instant contenders with that defense and the Patriots would benefit in the ways explained above.

If Robert Kraft can get over his personal feelings of affection for Tom Brady (he has called him his "son") and pull the trigger on a trade, it could be beneficial in the long run. 

Belichick always preaches he wants to do what's "in the best interest of the team." 

Okay Bill, time to prove it.

2003 Patriots vs. 2014 Patriots

The New England Patriots have had a long run of dominance since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick teamed up in the middle of the second game of the 2001 season. But here is a look at similarities between specifically two championship seasons, 2003 and 2014.


2003 first round pick was a defensive tackle (Ty Warren) 
2014 first round pick was a defensive tackle (Dominique Easley)

Right before the start of the 2003 season, Bill Belichick parted ways with a strong, veteran locker room leader who was a starter AND Tom Brady's close friend in Lawyer Milloy.
Right before the star of the 2014 season Bill Belichick parted ways with a strong, veteran locker room leader who was a starter AND Tom Brady's close friend in Logan Mankins

The 2003 season started off 2-2 with an opening day loss to a division opponent (vs. Bills), a dominant win against an NFC team in week 2 (the Philadelphia Eagles), a seven point win against an AFC team in week 3 (New York Jets), and a loss thanks in large part to a multi-interception game by Tom Brady (vs. Washington Redskins).
The 2014 season started off 2-2 with an opening day loss to a division opponent (vs. Dolphins), a dominant win against an NFC team in week 2 (the Minnesota Vikings), a seven point win against an AFC team in week 3 (Oakland Raiders), and a loss thanks in large part to a multi-interception game by Tom Brady (vs. Kansas City Chiefs).

There was a lot of questioning of Bill Belichick early in 2003, led by Tom Jackson of ESPN saying the team "hated their coach."
There was plenty of questions around Bill Belichick regarding his personnel decisions and if he gave Tom Brady enough weapons to work, led by strong remarks from ESPN's Trent Dilfer saying "they're not good anymore...they're weak."

In 2003, there was a quality week 5 win against a strong AFC opponent that would make the playoffs in the Tennessee Titans.
In 2014, there was a quality week 5 win against a strong AFC opponent that would make the playoffs in the Cincinnati Bengals.

In the 2003 season, the Patriots finished with the number one seed in the AFC.
In the 2014 season, the Patriots finished with the number one seed in the AFC.

The 2003 playoffs started with a frigid game, 4 °F, in which the Patriots would barely squeak by the Tennessee Titans, thanks to a late incompletion from Steve McNair to Drew Bennett.  
The 2014 playoffs started with a frigid game, 20 °F, in which the Patriots would barely squeak by the Baltimore Ravens, thanks to a late incompletion on a Hail Mary from Joe Flacco.

In the 2003 AFC Championship game, the Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts by multiple possessions and it was Tom Brady's fourth win over Peyton Manning.
In the 2014 AFC Championship game, the Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts by multiple possessions and it was Tom Brady's fourth win over Andrew Luck.

After the AFC Championship game in 2003, there were complaints that the officials did not properly call illegal contact, defensive holding, and pass interference calls on the Patriots defensive backs (later resulting in the league instructing the officials to strictly enforce these penalties). 
After the AFC Championship game in 2014, the infamous DeflateGate controversy came to life and is currently an ongoing investigation.

In the 2003 Super Bowl, the Patriots took on a pretty strong defense (10th) with a defensive-minded head coach in John Fox as they faced the Carolina Panthers. 
In the 2014 Super Bowl, the Patriots took on a very strong defense with a defensive-minded head coach in Pete Carroll as they faced the Seattle Seahawks.

The Patriots 2003 Super Bowl opponent, Carolina Panthers, had played in a overtime game which they won with a touchdown pass (double-overtime vs. St. Louis Rams in the divisional round).
The Patriots 2014 Super Bowl opponent, Seattle Seahawks, had played in a overtime game which they won with a touchdown pass (overtime vs. St. Louis Rams in the divisional round).

In the Super Bowl in 2003, Tom Brady had a third down pass picked off (by Reggie Howard) in the end zone.
In the Super Bowl in 2014, Tom Brady had a third down pass picked off (by Jeremy Lane) in the end zone.

Late in the Super Bowl in 2003, there was a blunder made by the Panthers when John Kasay kicked the ball out of bounds, setting up Tom Brady to lead a game-winning field goal drive. 
Late in the Super Bowl in 2014, there was a blunder made by the Seahawks when they called a pass play from the one yard line that was picked off by Malcolm Butler to give the ball to Tom Brady to run out the clock.

In 2003, Tom Brady set a record for completions in a Super Bowl with 32 en route to being named the MVP of the game. 
In 2014, Tom Brady broke his own record for completions in a Super Bowl with 37 en route to being named the MVP of the game. 

BOTTOM LINE IS IN 2003 AND IN 2014, THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS WERE SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS AND ON TOP OF THE FOOTBALL WORLD.

Brady's Legacy check: Pre Super Bowl 49

Typically when a Super Bowl is played, legacies are on the line.

Super Bowl 49 is no different. The player with the most to gain? The quarterback for the AFC champions, Tom Brady. Opponent? The Seattle Seahawks and the Legion of Boom.

If that sounds familiar, it should. It was the same scene last year when the AFC champions Denver Broncos were led by their quarterback Peyton Manning and he had the chance to become the first quarterback to lead two franchises to NFL supremacy, which along with all of his records would put him in a class of his own. To say he came up short is an understatement. The 43-8 drubbing was just an embarrassment.

Tom Brady hopes to have a different result. With a win here, Brady would have four super bowl trophies to his name.

FOUR.

Only two guys, Terry Bradshaw and Brady’s childhood idol Joe Montana, have won four times at the grandest stage. But Brady is different; he’s been to the top stage six times, more than any quarterback ever.

Brady already has the NFL record for most playoff wins in history with 20. To put into perspective, that is more playoff wins he has alone than 21 of the 32 franchises in the NFL have in their entire history. Tom Brady also holds the record for most passing yards in playoff history with 7,017 and most passing touchdowns with 49.

Brady’s dominance through the playoffs has been nothing short of spectacular. Though he has had a few bad games, mostly to the Baltimore Ravens, his good far outweighs his bad. He’s had clutch performances, such as Super Bowl 36 and 38 when he led his team to the game-winning points on the final drive. He has had the statistical dominance; such as in 2011 against the Broncos when he tied an NFL record with six touchdown passes, including five in the first half. The man has shown it all.

But for some reason, there are some people that hold Brady’s two super bowl losses against him in elevating him to the greatest of all time status. That’s not fair to Brady.

Now this is assuming he wins on Sunday, Brady would have the same amount of rings as Montana, widely regarded as the best ever, but would have two losses to the Giants while Montana never lost in the super bowl. By saying this, people are penalizing Brady for WINNING. The reason Brady has two losses while still having the same amount of rings as Montana is because Brady went further in the playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl two times while Montana, other than the four seasons he won it all, was ousted earlier in the playoffs so he never had the opportunity to lose a Super Bowl on top of his four wins.

Also, the way one loses has an impact. Peyton Manning got blown out by a record margin in one loss and threw a game-ending pick 6 in the other. That’s not a good look when you can point straight at the quarterback for the loss. With Brady, it’s different.

When people remember Brady’s first Super Bowl loss, most people will point to the luckiest play in NFL history: The helmet catch when the ball stuck to David Tyree’s helmet after an unreal escape by Eli Manning.

When people remember Brady’s second Super Bowl loss, there will be a clear image of Wes Welker dropping a pass that hit him in both of his hands. Neither time can you really pin it on Brady.

Many young fans won’t remember, but Montana nearly didn’t go unblemished. Unlike Brady, luck was on his side instead of against him. In 1988, when Montana led the legendary drive to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, he almost cost them the game earlier. Montana threw a pass in the middle of the end zone that landed right in the hands of Bengals defensive back Lewis Billups. Billups straight up dropped the pass on his own, with no impact from any 49er. The 49ers, who were trailing 13-6 at that point, may not have recovered from that. Instead, Montana threw a touchdown to Super Bowl MVP Jerry Rice on the very next play.

You think Bradshaw got his four without some luck on his side? Not so fast.

In Super Bowl 13, Roger Staubach stepped up in the pocket on a 3^rd down in the third quarter and fired a pass to a WIDE OPEN Jackie Smith. The Hall-of-Fame tight end dropped the ball and the Cowboys had to settle for a field goal, losing four points on the drive. How much did the Steelers win by on that night? That’s right, four points, 35-31.

The point is, nobody gets to greatness without a little luck. Heck, even Tom Brady had it when he was winning. Remember the “Tuck Rule” in 2001 that propelled the Patriots to a Super Bowl win that year? Remember John Kasay, the Panthers kicker who kicked the kickoff out of bounds with a little over a minute left in the Super Bowl in 2003? That field position gave Brady a short field to set up Adam Vinateri for the game-winner.

If Brady wins his fourth ring on Sunday, his four wins and an additional two appearances should be a plus for him, not something held against him. And him doing it without the like of Jerry Rice or Lynn Swann just drives the point home even more.

The Brady vs. Manning is over. The Brady vs. Montana debate is now in full force.