Week 12 Recap and Mid-Week Storylines

     From top to bottom, this was probably one of the most exciting weeks in the NFL thus far. As the playoffs get closer, games will start to become more crucial. Also, the good matchups will be flexed to prime-time action so more people will be viewing those. The NFL also is clever with scheduling, back loading the schedule with division games. Let’s jump into all the major action from Week 12:

Major Letdowns: There were a lot of surprising outcomes for some major teams who needed wins:

• Detroit missed a major opportunity to gain separation in their division. With Aaron Rodgers out for the Packers and Cutler out for the Bears, the Lions were at home playing the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are contending for the top overall pick in next years draft. They lost that game, thanks in large part to Matthew Stafford’s 4 interceptions. The last one can’t be put on Stafford though, as he put it in Calvin Johnson’s hands, who surprisingly made a game-costing drop.
• The Kansas City Chiefs lost a game to the division rivals Chargers. What was more astonishing was the way they lost. That defense, after losing Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, allowed 41 points including the game-winning touchdown, which was inexcusable. Up by four points, the Chiefs secondary let the Chargers receiver Seyi Ajiritutu get behind them and Philip Rivers put it right on the money. The Chiefs have dropped two straight after starting undefeated and an angry Denver Broncos team is coming to town.
• The Indianapolis Colts put down another forgettable performance and have looked extremely vulnerable since losing Reggie Wayne. They put up 11 points and allowed a 40-burger to the Arizona Cardinals. The playoffs are a lock since their division consists of two of the three worst teams in the NFL (Texans, Jaguars) and the Titans. 

Mid-Week Storylines

• Two NFC North teams, the Bears and Packers, are waiting for their franchise quarterbacks to return. The Packers in particular, have tried 3 other quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers’ place and last week tied the Minnesota Vikings.
• Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hurt his shoulder on an attempt to intercept a Tom Brady pass just before halftime. His condition is unclear, but the Broncos may be getting back cornerback Champ Bailey.
• The Chiefs lost their dynamic duo of pass rushers in a horrible loss on Sunday. Justin Houston (elbow) and Tamba Hali (ankle) both have their status’ up in the air for Sunday’s divisional showdown against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
• The importance of Monday Night’s game of the Saints at the Seahawks cannot be minimized. The Saints have one of the most lethal passing attacks in the league and the Seahawks are having major issues in the back end of their defense because of suspensions to Walter Thurmond (4 games) and Brandon Browner (possibly a year). Not to mention this is a crucial game to locking up the top seed in the NFC for two teams that are nearly unbeatable at home. 
  

 Quarterback Central

Week 9:

5- Ben Roethlisberger

4- Colin Kaepernick 

3- Carson Palmer

2- Philip Rivers

1- Tom Brady

Season:

5- Cam Newton

4- Tom Brady

3- Drew Brees

2- Philip Rivers
1- Peyton Manning

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos- Recap

Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning: Chapter 14

Recap: Peyton Manning had the better offense, defense, and special teams. There were no excuses to be made this time. He even had the stolen equalizer from New England in Wes Welker. Yet the Broncos fell to the Patriots 34-31 after 72 minutes of play. Tom Brady outdueled Peyton Manning, and it was even close. Manning was 19/36 for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns with an interception. Brady was 34/50 for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns with a donut on the interception line. In Manning’s defense, they had huge success on the ground, running for 280 yards so Manning didn’t have to. But Manning failed to engineer anything apart from 1 touchdown drive for the final 42 minutes of the game. Even when Belichick challenged Manning and gave him the ball first, Manning couldn’t capitalize. Then after the Patriots failed to score, Manning couldn’t even get in field goal range in sudden death situation. So again, when all the Manning supporters want to bring up the “Star Wars” numbers from the past, just remember, this is Manning in the cold temperatures. Manning played in a dome for his first 13 years. If he played in Brady’s conditions, there is little doubt his numbers would be significantly lower. But Manning supporters who lack objectivity fail to realize that. Manning showed up small on the big stage Sunday night. I thought this would be the game where Manning started to get closer to Tom Brady. Instead, he took a free-fall. Brady’s offensive line gave up two strip sacks, one resulting in a touchdown. The Patriots running backs were definitely in the holiday spirit when it came to giving the ball. Brady is playing with a new cast and statistically having his worst season ever. The Patriots are without anchors Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. On Sunday they were also without starting safety Steve Gregory. Brady could have had every excuse in the world to tank it. Yet he carried his team. Manning had no excuse. His receiving corps is arguably the NFL’s best. His running back ran for 224 yards. Led by Von Miller, his defense forced three turnovers. And he failed.

What it means: Though all those negatives happened to Manning and the Broncos, it would be foolish to overreact. It was a regular season game. A big one, but just one. And going into the game, Denver had grasp of the number one seed. Coming out, they still control their own destiny. Patriots fans are definitely happy about the win but you do not want to see this Denver team in January. And if it is in Mile High, there is little doubt Manning can pull it out. Peyton Manning is an all-time great and the best quarterback in the league right now. To think he wouldn’t be up to the task in the playoffs would be foolish. Before the game I said Brady’s legacy was stronger than Manning’s. Taking all fan emptions out, I stand by that. But the careers are from over. Manning can do plenty to change that and Brady can do plenty to distance himself. It all matters in January.

Costly win once again: Once again the Patriots won a big game. Once again the price was hefty. With two starting defensive tackles gone for the season, they lost their third best in Isaac Sopoaga in the first half. With linebacker Jerod Mayo out for the season, his top replacement Donta Hightower left with an injury. Top left tackle Sebastian Vollmer is out for the season. His replacement Marcus Cannon left the game with an ankle injury and did not return. With Steve Gregory already out, the Patriots starting cornerback Alfozo Dennard left the game and did not return. Aqib Talib left momentarily but returned. Clearly he is banged up. Running back Legarette Blount also left the game with a concussion. This is a true test of depth.

Stat of Note: In Wes Welkers return, he had 4 catches for 31 yards including a crucial overtime drop (Patriots fans can empathize with Broncos fans on that). 

One thing is for sure. This game did not disappoint. It was an epic battle between two of the best quarterbacks ever.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos- Preview

Top Storylines:

• Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning- All week, experts and fans have dissected every part of these two quarterbacks legacies and play. Time to show up or put up on Sunday night.
• Wes Welker’s return- One thing that has been glossed over this past week because of the two quarterbacks as well as Wes Welker’s injury last week is the fact that this is Welker’s first return to New England. Everybody remembers the ugly divorce in the offseason in which the Patriots opted to go for a younger Danny Amendola over the always-reliable Welker. To this point, Welker has more touchdown receptions (9) that Amendola has games played (6).
• Playoff positioning- With a loss, New England looses any practical chance at getting the number one seed. The Broncos would have a 3 game lead and the tiebreaker.

Fun Fact:

•  The Denver Broncos are the only team in the NFL that boasts a winning record against Tom Brady. Brady is 4-6 vs. the Broncos.
•  This is the first time in SEVEN years that the New England Patriots are underdogs in their own home. 

Who it means more to?

• There is absolutely no question this game means way more to the Broncos than the Patriots for many reasons:

            1.     The Broncos have no wiggle room in their division with the Chiefs. A loss here can threaten to send the Broncos to a potential 5 seed at worst. But even if they lose here and then win out (they play at Arrowhead next week), the Broncos can finish with the number 1 seed
            2.     The Patriots have nothing to lose. The Broncos clearly have the better roster and the Patriots defense is beyond banged up. The Patriots are underdogs so a loss would not be a shock
            3.     Manning would fall significantly behind Brady in the debate for a better legacy. As highlighted before, (For more, see The War of 1812- Legacies), Brady already has the edge in the minds of many. Manning can’t let this opportunity slip.

What analyzers should avoid after the game

• ·      People need to make sure not to overreact and become a victim to prisoner of the moment. At the end of the day, it is a regular season game. An important one, for sure. But it is just one.
•      A win by the Patriots does not mean the Broncos are no longer contenders and slip from great to good nor does it mean the Patriots still don’t have major flaws, because they do. Especially defensively.
•      A win by the Broncos does not mean the Patriots Super Bowl hopes are finished. Fans may think that, but factually speaking, they will have a chance to make a run come January regardless of this game.
•      A win by Manning does not all of a sudden make him surpass Brady. It simply moves him to 9-5 all-time head to head. Legacies are impacted in the postseason.                                                                              Just some points to keep things in perspective

My Prediction: I think Tom Brady will play a great game but Manning will return the favor. Aqib Talib may take out one guy but the Broncos have way too many weapons. The Broncos defense has picked up the slack these past three weeks, allowing only an average of 22 points per game. Von Miller has had an impact and Champ Bailey may return. A win by either team would not surprise me but I’m going to go Broncos 38 Patriots 31. 

The War of 1812- Legacies

     Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning

     The Ultimate question. Brady or Manning? Truth is, most people would take either one. It is also not a fair question to ask at this point because both are still playing at a very high level and can still do things to add to their respective legacies.

     I have mad respect for both of these guys. These are two guys who are very close friends and respect each other greatly. Peyton Manning’s coach Tony Dungy said, “People would be surprised how close they are. They share game plans on how to attack other teams and stay in contact all the time.” Tom Brady has said he thinks Manning is the “greatest of all time.” Manning has said, "It's pretty well documented my respect for Tom as a quarterback, the way he prepares. The way he's better each season than the year before. Those are the couple of the many things that are impressive about him as a quarterback." Wes Welker, who has played and endured success with both has said “They are both spectacular. It’s like Michelangelo and Picasso. It’s hard to compare the two.” However for the sake of argument, I will pick one and at this point I believe it isn’t that hard to pick.

     If we were picking who is playing better right now, it isn’t even a discussion. Manning may just be having the best quarterback season ever. But we are comparing legacies. And with that, you have to go with Tom Brady. And I truly mean that objectively, taking the fan emotions out of the equation. It is unfair to see full career numbers because Manning has played 3 more full seasons than Brady. If you see the per-game stats, Manning has averaged 269.5 yards per game to Brady’s 253.3. For touchdown percentage they are pretty equal with Manning at 5.7% and Brady at 5.5%. In interception percentage, Brady is at 2.1% while Manning is at 2.6%. Statistics wise they are pretty equal, although I would give Manning a slight edge. But then you have to consider the surrounding circumstances. 

     Manning has played with 2 surefire Hall of Famers for his entire career in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Then he got released following injuries and got to handpick his team and for his two years in Denver, he has had arguably the very best receiving corps in the league. He also played in a dome stadium for his 13 years in Indianapolis, where it is much easier to throw the ball, especially with his arsenal. Manning also played with worse defenses so he had to throw the ball more, inflating his stats. Tom Brady has played where often it can start snowing in October. Even in those games, Brady has maintained success and has thrown for record-breaking stats (see 2009 game vs. Titans). Brady has also rarely had the arsenal Manning has consistently had. When he did, as in 2007, he lit up the league and put up all-time best numbers and did not lose. Then, in the following years when Brady was given a mediocre defense at best, he never dipped under 4,000 yards passing and had unbelievable stats including in 2011 when he threw for 5,235 yards, 2^nd best ever. And even while gathering these stats, he did not have the superstars.

     Where the real separation for these guys occurs for these guys is the postseason. Brady has the most wins ever with 17 to go along with 7 losses. That includes 5 Super Bowl appearances and 3 Super Bowl victories. Manning has a losing record, 9-11, in the playoffs and has been one-and-done 8 times in the playoffs in his career. Brady has been one-and-done twice. Brady led two game winning drives in the Super Bowl wins and near the end of his two losses, he again elevated his play. Barring a helmet catch by David Tyree and a Wes Welker drop, Brady could have been sitting with 5 rings right now. Peyton Manning arguably threw away his second chance at a ring with a pick-6 to Tracy Porter. Tom Brady also leads Peyton Manning in head to head matchups 9-4, with a 14^th one coming up this Sunday. Brady is also the single winningest quarterback in NFL history with a .773 winning percentage. 2^nd is Joe Montana at .713 and Manning is 3^rd at .697. Brady can endure a 1-15 season and still have the best winning percentage ever.

     When asking the question who is better, it isn’t fair to go off of the opinion of those people who have played with their guy. Obviously Tony Dungy, Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne and other will go with Manning. And of course Tedy Bruschi, Troy Brown, Randy Moss and Bill Belichick will go with Brady. When you ask neutral people who don’t hate one of the two and don’t love one of the two, the widely regarded opinion is that Tom Brady has a better legacy right now. Obviously it is not unanimous and some do make an argument for Manning but most give Brady the edge for now. Charlie Casserly, the former General Manager of the Washington Redskins and Houston Texans recently said, “I think our era will appreciate Brady more.”

     When this issue was brought up just yesterday, Deion Sanders said “If there is one guy that I want on my team for that last drive, with a good pass rush on the other side, inclement weather and everything, it is Tom Brady. Because he is going to win that game and is not going to do anything stupid to hurt his team.” Sanders added, “We can maybe argue who’s been the best- remember Tom Brady’s been to 5(Super Bowls)- but we just did the Hall of Fame finalist list. Marvin Harrison is up. Reggie Wayne will be up. Ain’t nobody from the Patriots coming through but Tom Brady makes everybody better, regardless of who is on his team. We have seen this man go out with a swollen hand and make it happen. He just gets it done.” Probably the most surprising comments came from Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, who was Peyton Manning's teammate and was also beat by Brady in a Super Bowl. He said, “As much as I love Peyton Manning and what he can do, I’m riding with Tom Brady. Tom is unbelievable the way he throws the football.” That caught the attention of others on the table and Faulk basically said that he was being unbiased and “just doing my job, being an analyst.” That shifts the argument to Brady’s favor, when even Manning’s ex-teammate who always defends Manning and has a reason to hate Brady, takes Brady’s side.

     With all of that being said, Brady may have the edge for now, but it is far from over. Manning could very easily surpass Brady by adding to his decorated career. This argument is better suited for when they are both retired. Anybody would happy just to have either one of these guys on their team. Both are among the top 3 of all time.

     Peyton Manning can be favored as the greatest regular season quarterback ever, signified by his four regular season MVP's to Brady's two. However, the complete package, for now, has to go to Tom Brady.